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Houston Texans × Strength in Numbers · October 2025

What makes an explosive play?

A team of five graduate students set out to define an explosive play and find how the Houston Texans can create more of them, consistently, on every down. We used the 2024 play data the Texans gave us and presented four recommendations to the football operations staff.

600explosive plays analyzed
52%of those drives ended in a touchdown
74%ended with points (touchdown or field goal)
26thTexans' rank of 32 teams, and they still made the playoffs

Our definition

Yardage catches the obvious big plays. EPA catches the ones that matter most.

Run

10+ yards

Pass

20+ yards

Or any play with

EPA ≥ 1.0

Expected Points Added

  • The yardage cutoffs are big enough to change a drive. They match the "explosive" or "chunk play" definitions analysts already use, and they leave enough plays to study without filling the set with small gains.
  • EPA already accounts for the situation: down, distance and field position. A play worth +1.0 EPA raised the chance of scoring by a full point or more.
  • We tested other thresholds. Lower cutoffs pulled in too many ordinary plays. Higher ones threw out too many real ones.

Why they matter

An explosive play flips field position, momentum and the odds of scoring on that drive.

How drives ended after an explosive play

Number of explosive plays, by the drive's final result (600 total)

Touchdown plus field goal: 446 of 600 drives (74%) ended with points. Turnovers were rare: 20 interceptions and 12 fumbles.

Explosive plays by team

Consistent offenses create more big plays. The Texans had 15.

Explosive plays by team, 2024 data

Number of explosive plays by the team on offense. Houston in red.

Top three: Detroit, Pittsburgh and Minnesota, all playoff teams. Bottom three: Indianapolis, the Giants and the Jets, all missed the playoffs. Houston ranked 26th of 32 and still made the playoffs.

What we found

Three patterns from the data

  1. Explosive plays lead to points

    About 52% of drives with an explosive play ended in a touchdown, and about 74% ended with points.

  2. They happen on early downs

    Most explosive plays came on 1st and 2nd down, when defenses are less predictable. Most of those were passes.

  3. The Texans have room to grow

    Houston ranked 26th of 32 teams in explosive plays. More big plays would make the offense more dynamic.

Our recommendations

Four ways to create more explosive plays

  1. Attack on early downs

    Use play-action and deep routes on 1st and 2nd down. Don't be afraid to take shots.

  2. Track EPA-based explosives

    Measure which plays actually move the needle, not just which ones gain yards.

  3. Study opponents' defensive tendencies

    Especially on early downs, where most explosive plays happen.

  4. Keep the run-pass balance

    Balance sets up the big play. Top teams like the Lions mix in creative looks, even trick plays, to keep defenses guessing.

About the project

Texans Analytics Mentorship Project, Strength in Numbers 2025, Team A

Data
2024 game data provided by the Houston Texans
Measures
Yardage, Expected Points Added (EPA), down, drive result
Tools
PythonPower BIFeature engineeringNFL analytics
Delivered
Presentation, Python notebook, Power BI dashboard
Team
Five graduate students, about four weeks
Program
Strength in Numbers 2025 with the Houston Texans. Strength in Numbers is a nonprofit, founded by Professor John Tobias of UNC Charlotte, that teaches sports analytics to students from underrepresented groups.
My role
Opened the presentation and presented the data and methods and the recommendations. Ran team coordination: questions to our Texans mentor, meeting scheduling and notes. Worked on the Python analysis and the Power BI tooling.
Next steps
Video analysis, a breakdown by opposing defense, home-field effects, and a full season of data